Trump invites speculation


Every Trump statement has an impact on the financial world. The war is said to be slowing as the sack suffers this week and fossil fuel prices ease. It is an amenaza with destruction for the ayatollahs on the contrary.

If the oranges are drawn on the exchange, then when the excitement is over, they will come to the door of the buyers.

Conversely, haven values ​​(precious metals in general) are based on their declarations in reverse order to the bag or in direct price directly to fossil fuel prices.

In this way, with a little thought, one can overcome which statements the current president of the EEUU is making whether to sell or buy to be precise.

A keen observer will be selling in the bag moments before Trump announces that he is going to attack or suffer oranges as global stock indexes fall the following day. On the contrary, when Trump announces a ceasefire or the release of the oranges.

The key is to listen and listen to Trump’s speech

The key is to listen and listen to Trump’s speech. How the griegos querian decubrates the future by thinking about it in the Oracle of Delphos.

The relevance of Trump’s speculation is this previous advice. But it is not easy to make a Trumpologist

The first person should know how far in advance the posture changes are prepared. The key question is whether Trump will act after a thoughtful analysis of the situation in at least one day? Or is it just one hour? Or one minute? Or do you do it immediately on impulse?

In all cases there is suspicion. If the latest hypothesis – which responds to immediate impulses – is not formed, it is certain that Trump himself, possibly his closest associates and those in contact with them, have “insider information” (privileged information) or at least preliminary information.

However, it would not be unusual for those who published this information to approve it after seeing how the markets changed before the moves of the President of the EEUU. Tanto en los active bursátilesAs well as the price of fuels and the value of havens, are these circles involved in this speculation? If so, is it legal? Is it ethical?

Another key is intent: if statements are made for strategic reasons and speculation is merely an inevitable consequence or vice versa

The first priority for these judges is to keep data on the financial movements of these circles. I realize that I don’t care about them because of this any juicio emitiera would be imprudent.

But in light of the fact that these movements exist, it should be noted that they are legally punishable.

PUSH Internal information It is regulated by law for members of the boards of directors of regulated companies and organizers of business markets and other matters. Also for my government friends.

But in this last case it refers more to political information than to financiers. Although both are always connected.

Thus, after proving the use of this information (which is unlikely), you would have to deploy an extensive legal apparatus to define whether it is legal or not, and which players are competent to play.

However, the level of responsibility is not only legal. In the depth of these actions, it is an ethical plane.

A classic example can be followed to consider ethical responsibility: object, intent, and consequences.

Speculation in itself (the object) is neither good nor bad. It’s indifferent. The embedded speculator balances the market because you sell when you buy a lot and you buy when you buy a lot; dampens oscillations.

Another key is intent: if statements are made for strategic reasons and speculation is merely an inevitable consequence, or vice versa. In the first place, ethical law would be neutral. in the second, If speculation is the primary concern, the ethical judgment would be damning.

But it is precisely in the consequences that the “mother of the rope” is. When it comes to war with its subsequent “side effects”, it is a decision about lives, including innocent ones, justice is unequivocally condemning. Making money on the coast is criminal.

So complicated is the question of the morality or immorality of the declarations and actions of Trump and those who financially approve him. What is evident is that “a rio revuelto, ganancias de pescadores”.

** JR Pin Arboledas is an IESE professor.

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