Within days, on the 21st and 22nd, the UN General Assembly will question the vision and proposals of each of the candidates for secretary-general. António Guterres ends his second and final term at the end of the year. Who will be your successor?
One candidate is Michelle Bachelet, who was president of Chile twice – in the period 2006-2010 and from 2014 to 2018. Bachelet can also claim a remarkable experience at the United Nations. She assumed several positions, and until 2022 she was High Commissioner for Human Rights. It turns out that Human Rights are a very sensitive area, where it often creates conflicts with several violating States. The North American president and the recently inaugurated president of his country therefore do not view his candidacy in a positive light. Although she is, in my opinion, the most qualified candidate, she faces a practically impossible challenge.
Rafael Grossi, the Argentine who has served as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency since 2019, is also participating in the race. Grossi gained visibility because of the crises surrounding atomic power plants in Ukraine and Iran. His name is clearly associated with nuclear issues. He has revealed courage and initiative. The support of his country’s president, Javier Milei, an extravagant who maintains a special relationship with Donald Trump and has become closer to China – he said this year in Davos that China is a major trading partner – will help his candidacy. The problem could come from Moscow: Milei supports Ukraine, although with fluctuations dictated by alignment with Washington. What impact could this position have on Grossi’s ambition?
Rebeca Grynspan, the former vice president of Costa Rica (1994-1998), is also on the list of official candidates. Grynspan gained points when he was one of those responsible for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. She is currently the Secretary-General of UNCTAD, the UN agency that seeks to promote international trade within a framework of sustainable development. He was recently in Baku, at an international meeting that is promoted annually by the president of Azerbaijan and brings together hundreds of personalities active on the international scene. He then traveled to Moscow, where he met with Sergey Lavrov. They tell me that the visit went very cordially. However, Russian diplomacy is very knowledgeable and will only show its cards at the last moment.
Grynspan is, from the outset, the candidate with the best chance of success. In addition to her diplomatic qualities and her experience in the global economy, she comes from a country with little controversy and is a woman. Now, there is a huge political campaign, in several influential circles, that is pushing for a woman to be elected – an unprecedented feat.
We also have Macky Sall, former president of Senegal (2012-2024) and the African Union (2022-2023). In carrying out these roles, Sall demonstrated that he knew how to dialogue with the great powers independently, without geostrategic alignments. It is a moderate voice from the Global South. However, he faces a major challenge: the geographic rotation of the position of secretary general. According to this principle, an unwritten but decisive understanding, the next UN Secretary General must come from the group of countries that make up Latin America and the Caribbean. The only secretary general to come from that region was the Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, who concluded his term on the last day of 1991. Therefore, it is almost certain to see Guterres give way to a Latin American or a Caribbean person – I am convinced that these nationality designations should be written in the feminine.
We’ll see how the auditions on April 21st and 22nd go. The delegations present at the General Assembly are preparing to raise a wide range of issues. The most delicate ones will certainly be those linked to the reform of the United Nations, starting with the composition and representation of the Security Council. Requests for clarification will also arise regarding the way in which each candidate thinks it is possible to deal with States with the right to veto, each time they embark on a clear violation of the United Nations Charter and International Law. This is a very current issue. Great powers now blatantly violate the principles and protocols that they themselves and the international community have approved over the decades. They tear up the UN Charter when it suits them. And they protect client states that are run by war criminals.
How can each candidate respond to questions of this type? It won’t be easy.
The political dimension of the UN is experiencing an accelerated period of fragility and marginalization. International relations are no longer aligned with the search for solutions to global problems. Today, as in a past that would be thought never to return, prior to 1945, clashes and wars of aggression count for more than diplomacy and solidarity between peoples. What can the Secretary-General do to reverse this trend?
In other words, is there still political space for an organization whose mission is to maintain peace among peoples? The answer lies in the different capitals in different parts of the world. It is not in the building in Manhattan, in the area known as Turtle BayTurtle Bay. Therefore, the new secretary general, whether he or she is one of the four mentioned above, or whether he or she comes from any card out of the deck, who appears at the last minute and has the approval of the five members with veto rights, must be a turtle on the move. A pilgrim of peace in permanent transit between the capitals. Direct contact with the people and with the most diverse leaders, including those who pretend to believe in multilateralism, diplomacy and respect for International Law, this is the master key to the rebirth of the United Nations.
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