China’s exports grow 2.5% in March, slow down with war in Iran and pressure on energy and global demand

China’s exports grew 2.5% in March, slowing down compared to the previous two months, in a context of uncertainty due to the war in Iran and the impact on energy prices and global demand.

The data released this Tuesday, 14th, by the General Administration of Customs of China fell short of analysts’ estimates and represents a strong decline, compared to the 21.8% growth recorded in January and February.

Imports increased 27.8% in March, above the annual increase of 19.8% observed in the first two months of the year.

Technology-related exports, including increased shipments of semiconductors, driven by the global artificial intelligence boom, supported robust performance in early 2026, but economists warn that the prolongation of the war in Iran could affect global demand for Chinese products.

“China’s exports have slowed as the war in Iran begins to affect global demand and supply chains,” said Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific economist at French bank Natixis.

Despite the significant recovery recorded at the beginning of the year, demand is expected to weaken due to the energy shock caused by the conflict, according to economists at Bank of America, led by Helen Qiao.

The risks increase if the conflict lasts longer than expected, potentially leading to a persistent global slowdown, they added.

The tariffs imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, as well as tensions between Washington and Beijing, have also put pressure on Chinese exports to the North American market, leading China to increase sales to other regions, such as Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Analysts are also closely following Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in May to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, after a postponement caused by the war in Iran.

Chinese authorities have set an economic growth target of between 4.5% and 5% for 2026, the lowest level since 1991.

China met its growth target of “around 5%” in 2025, supported by strong exports – with a record trade surplus of 1.2 trillion dollars (more than one trillion euros) – and analysts consider that these should continue to be an essential driver of the economy this year, at a time when the prolonged crisis in the real estate sector continues to weigh on domestic demand and investment.