Tension in the Middle East and fuel volatility have increased uncertainty surrounding TAP’s valuation, and IAG’s withdrawal from the race also reduces the Government’s negotiating power, according to experts.
Data provided to Lusa by financial analyst Nuno Esteves, referring to December 2025, pointed to a reference value between 1.45 and 1.64 billion euros, in a sectoral context then described as globally favorable to air transport. In other words, 49.9% of this range – the value of the capital that the government intends to sell – would correspond to around 723.6 to 818.4 million euros.
The Government, through Parpública, hired EY and Banco Finantia to carry out independent assessments, but the values are not public.
According to the analyst, the analysis “was based on a prudential approach, anchored in the method of multiples of comparable transactions in the European sector and adjusted by the value of expected synergies”.
And it ensures that the estimated range constitutes “a solid economic reference for the reprivatization process, balancing the protection of the public interest with the attractiveness of the asset for private investors”.
This reference, however, precedes the worsening of the geopolitical context and energy pressure observed since the end of February. The conflict in the Middle East led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks and contributed to rising fuel prices.
According to the same data, the average price of aviation fuel went from $702.35 per ton in 2025 to $1,371.77 by April 6, 2026, reflecting an average increase of 30% compared to the same period last year.
“Given the current adverse sectoral situation, marked by the rise in jet fuel, the partial closure of airspace in the Persian Gulf, TAP’s significant exposure to the leisure segment and the reduced visibility regarding the normalization of the sector, the current context of uncertainty does not allow for a robust economic reassessment of the air carrier”, says the analyst.
The same data also shows that TAP has an average level of fuel coverage of 40% for 2026, below that observed in several European groups.
According to Nuno Esteves, with this average level of coverage (hedging), “each 10% increase in the price of jet fuel in 2026 will translate into an increase of approximately 59.4 million euros in TAP’s annual costs”, with a negative impact of 1.2 percentage points on the operating margin, which has been deteriorating since 2022, going from 9.2% to the current 5.6%.
The analyst also maintains that, as the company is “in the process of being sold, a deterioration in profitability — or even the eventual presentation of losses — could put downward pressure on its valuation, while making potential buyers more cautious when faced with a high investment in a particularly adverse economic context”.
The relief recorded in the Strait of Hormuz does not eliminate this uncertainty for now. Iran announced on Friday that the passage of commercial ships through the strait is open during the current ceasefire, and oil prices fell sharply with this indication, but the evolution of the conflict and maritime circulation remains dependent on the geopolitical situation in the coming weeks.
In this context of uncertainty, Nuno Esteves argues that “it is more pertinent to emphasize its medium-term potential”, based on air transport, maintenance and engineering, sustainable fuels and the reinforcement of the Lisbon hub, instead of carrying out a new closed assessment of the company.
IAG’s withdrawal from the race could also affect the final price. The analyst considers that “it will most likely reduce the competitive intensity in the privatization process, with a potential impact on the final valuation of TAP and the complementary conditions associated with the transaction”.
Rui Quadros, former manager of Iberia and SATA, maintains that “the departure of IAG significantly reduces competitive pressure in the process”.
ISEC professor Maria Baltazar understands that the withdrawal of the owner of Iberia eliminates “the candidate who most clearly put the Lisbon hub at risk, given its proximity to Madrid, but also reduces the State’s negotiating power”.
The privatization process of up to 49.9% of TAP recently entered the decisive phase, with Air France-KLM and Lufthansa called to present final proposals with the financial and strategic terms for taking part in the airline’s capital.
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