A diplomatic clearing is emerging in the Middle East. Iran has announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial ships, as part of the ongoing ceasefire with the United States. This strategic passage alone concentrates a major part (around 20%) of global oil traffic, which has been severely disrupted since the start of the war.
This announcement comes as hostilities mark a pause on several fronts, notably in Lebanon. Donald Trump was particularly confident about the outcome of the discussions initiated with Tehran. “We are very close to obtaining an agreement,” he declared, believing that there were no longer any “blocking points” between the two countries.
Trump highlights diplomatic victory
The American president quickly reacted to the Iranian decision, adopting a resolutely satisfied tone. ” THANKS ! “, he wrote on Truth Social, before asserting that the Islamic Republic was committed to “never again closing” the strait, a highly strategic point for the world economy.
Beyond this reaction, Donald Trump sought to promote the progress obtained in the negotiations. He notably mentioned the sensitive issue of highly enriched uranium, ensuring that an agreement had been reached on this point, without official confirmation from the Iranian side. Information now denied by Tehran which reacted on Friday. Despite this display of confidence, Donald Trump maintained a firm line by specifying that the American blockade targeting Iranian ports would remain “totally in force” as long as a global agreement was not concluded.
A controlled opening and persistent differences
On the Tehran side, communication remains more measured. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, indicated that “the passage of all commercial ships […] is declared fully open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” without clearly specifying which truce agreement it was referring to.
The Iranian authorities also insisted on denying any external pressure. Navy chief Admiral Shahram Irani said: “We are not blocked,” adding that “every day, ships respecting the rules […] cross the strait. A way of reminding us that this reopening is, according to them, part of a controlled framework.
Markets react, but caution remains in order
The impact of this announcement was immediate on the energy markets. Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent falling 10.50% to $88.95 and WTI falling 11.40% to $83.90. This movement reflects renewed optimism regarding the security of global supplies.
Our file on the war in Iran
For Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at ING, “the statements by the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs suggest a de-escalation as long as the ceasefire remains in force.” Kathleen Brooks, analyst at XTB, for her part, evokes “the hope that the war will soon end and that supply chains will return to a certain normality”.
Despite this, uncertainties remain: negotiations are continuing under Pakistani mediation and, even in the event of lasting stabilization, several months could be necessary for a complete return to normal.
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