Four years have passed since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Four years have confirmed something that history has taught us: rare war is now good business, and in this case it never applies to those who start with the wrong presses.
A rational analysis of war conflicts (with thousands of them accumulated in the history books) shows that war is profitable only for some. If the beneficiaries were generalized, the war would be permanent.
Thus, between the Second World War and its sixty thousand dead, an international order was designed, the main purpose of which was to prevent a repeat of such devastation.
Nuclear weapons (and their logical costs and benefits of mutually assured destruction) therefore marked the most peaceful era in human history.
The French War did not arise from a direct war between the United States and the USSR. However, Moscow has tried to implement this deterrence as a shield for a conventional attack against an adjacent neighbor.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Reuters
In Ukraine, the coast has an incalculable dimension. But there is no benefit to intruders.
We look forward to basic figures, lost materials, diplomatic and structural deterioration of the force used, This war represents the Kremlin’s worst strategic mistake since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The human coast on the red side is terrible. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the military is responsible for 1.2 million deaths, injuries and disappearances and 325,000 confirmed deaths as of February 24, 2022.
The coast of the material is a washing machine. El International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), otro think tank which analyzed the conflict, estimates that Russia will lose 1,400 battle tanks in 2024 and more than 4,000 since the start of the full-scale invasion, as well as twenty-nine warships and more than 360 military aircraft.
Total invasion gas costs are estimated at $196,000 million in 2025 alone. An estimated $500,000 to $600,000 million has been gassed in Russia since the invasion began.
However, those who raised and still take the majority are logically Ukrainians.
Among the military, it is between $500,000 and $600,000. According to various estimates, 100,000 to 140,000 of them will die.
Your own Zelensky This month, he claimed that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died on the battlefield.
Among civilians, there are less than 15,000 and 16,000 verified deaths and 40,000 deaths, respectively, according to the UN High Commission for Human Rights.
“The economic and material costs of the war for Ukraine in the form of direct physical damage are around $176,000 million by the end of 2024 alone.”
In addition, the number of refugees and displaced persons is escalating. They estimate that there are six thousand Ukrainian refugees from abroad and 3.8 million internally displaced persons in Ukraine.
In addition, ten thousand Ukrainians are dependent on humanitarian aid.
The economic and material costs of the war for Ukraine in direct physical damage reach 176,000 million dollars by the end of 2024 alone. The cost of possible reconstruction is estimated at 524,000 million dollars. Total economic losses (including lost PIBs) are claimed at $589,000 million.
This invasion lasted longer than the intervention began during World War II.
In the Great Patriotic War, the human losses, as well as the laman in Russia, were terrifying.
The USSR lost three and ten thousand soldiers and five and ten thousand civilians.
However, the USSR was able to extend its power to all countries that sided with the Maple Leaf, established itself as the second world power at all levels, and received a historical medal for being on the side of the Allies (depressing pact Molotov–Ribbentrop divide Poland in a mere historical anecdote).
“The Black Sea Fleet suffered humiliating coups by a section of the country that had virtually no operational navy at the start of the war”
Apart from the human and material shores, the strategic and political shores are barren and the signs are obvious.
The former military force used was placed in the middle of the invasion on the same day when a bunch of trucks were hit and left gassed in Kiev.
The Black Sea Fleet suffered humiliating coups by a part of the country that had virtually no operational navy at the start of the war. Wars Putin Waged (Chechnya, Georgia and Syria) they have created a misconception about their armed forces.
Partial abandonment of the Middle East by Washington during the end of his mandate Obama and the first mandate TrumpRussia was established as a new power in the region. Ahabó with the Syrian civil war, reaffirmed a Al Assad in power and God allowed Israel to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria at every opportunity.
Syria after Al Assad.
This position in the Middle East was shaken when, one day after another, Al Assad was forced to return to Russia in December 2024, until the Kremlin could do nothing.
This strategic rift in the region was confirmed when Russia could not provide any assistance to Iran in the last two days’ war in June last year.
In the former goal of avoiding OTAN expansion, the results are even worse. The alliance has expanded, is committed to 5% military gas for its members, and Europe is exhausting itself and taking over its own defense.
In the financial sphere of the military effort forced the Kremlin to reorient the economy to a permanent war logicdissolving military gas at levels comparable to those of the late Soviet era.
Although the PIB has held up better than expected thanks to energy inputs and a war economy, that resilience is demanding: it depends on massive losses in the hydrocarbon markets in China and India, a build-up in inventories and growing economic subservience to Beijing.
Four years later, the balance sheet is clear: disaster in all regions of Russia.
*** Elías Cohen is Professor of International Relations at the University of Francisco de Vitoria.
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