IMF: war redefines priorities

This week, the International Monetary Fund updated its projections in its quarterly report on the global economic outlook. The authority reviewed the global growth rate for 2026.

In the April update, global PIB growth is +3.1% for 2026 (vs. +3.3% estimated in Italy) and +3.2% for 2027 (excluding exchange rates vs. income). The revision raises global inflation to +4.4% in 2026 (vs. +3.8% previously) from +4.1% in 2025. We further note that in the adverse scenario, global growth increases to +2.5%, while inflation accelerates to +5.4%.

Reasons for this review in the country include trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty – particularly due to the risk of a global recession and the current conflict with Iran – and an adjustment in product expectations associated with near-term AI.

Spain is among the developed powers of the country with the best outlook from the United States:

From this infographic, we can deduce that in the years 2025, 2026 and 2027 combined, the world grew by 10.02%; los países ricos, 5.50%; and developing and underdeveloped, 13.03%:

Developing Asia in particular saw a 15.98% increase in cases during this period. The Eurozone follows in the wheel van:

Current global imbalances are increasing again, driven by high deficits in the United States and dire gluts in China. The use of oranges and industrial policies are ineffective and expensive to correct these balances because they only work to suppress consumption.

Only internal macro-economic adjustments will be the real solution: the EU must reduce its fiscal gas and surplus economies such as China must encourage domestic consumption to avoid a global financial crisis.

Last year ended with a positive outlook due to trade shortfalls and political uncertainty. The private sector has adapted to the changing business environment, while compensating factors have been a reduction in the number of orange states compared to what was originally announced, adequate fiscal relief and favorable financial conditions combined with strong productivity gains and technological growth:

The war in the Middle East slowed this momentum. With the end of Ormuz and severe damage to critical facilities in the region essential to the global hydrocarbon minister, the possibility of an energy crisis continues:

In a severe long-term blackout scenario, global growth could reach up to 2%, while inflation would escalate to a maximum of 6%, reversing the disinflation trend of recent years:

In a nutshell, the IMF hopes in its latest economic outlook update:

As war and commercial fragmentation destroy PIB, AI agency rises as a potential engine that could raise living standards if massive and proper adoption occurs.

I have no doubt that we will live a glorious era thanks to artificial intelligence. Alejémonos del ruido y putamonos manos a la work: skill is what you are able to do, motivation defines what you do and attitude determines how well you do it.