As I write these lines, hope is reborn around peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The truce, still fragile, opened a window that many thought had definitively closed. But, even if the talks progress, a conclusion emerges with increasing clarity: most likely, nothing will be the same again in the Middle East.
The first visible consequence of this new balance is Iran’s position. Pressured by months of direct and indirect confrontation, and aware of the internal economic strain, Tehran appears willing to put in place stand-byfor an as yet undetermined period, its nuclear program. This is not a strategic resignation, but a tactical suspension, a gesture calibrated to alleviate tensions and gain negotiating leverage.
The second consequence is deeper and, for Washington, more uncomfortable. American military hegemony was called into question. The Gulf Arab allies realized that the United States was not only unable to protect them from Iran, but ended up dragging them into a conflict they did not want. The episode of the blockade of the strait, decreed by Washington in response to the Iranian blockade, became paradigmatic: by trying to punish Tehran, the US ended up harming its own regional partners as much or more, dependent on sea routes for their economic survival.
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