For both the Ayatollahs and Trump, the occupation of the Hormuz border is an economic weapon, more powerful than the most powerful and accurate missiles. An economic nuclear weapon.
At the start of the 40-day war, Iran took its toll. 20% of global hydrocarbon and gas trade was transferred the arrow of the end in a mighty weapon for the Ayatollahs.
With traffic jams crippling, Trump’s Sun aliases have stopped exporting “black and gas gold.” Its economies are more resistant to it than the missiles that attack its infrastructure. In tourism alone, the monastic suns of the Gulf make $600 million every day, and between them and Iraq 1,100 million less per day to export energy.
The ayatollahs believe that because of them, these monarchs will defend Trump by calling for attacks. It hasn’t happened yet, but time is on your side.
For example, with mines, drones and missilesThe Ayatollas and their Revolutionary Guards blocked merchants classified as enemies.
Adamas, Balance garnishment is a mechanism for your financing. Only by paying the IBAN fee to enable this sea transport.
Asian economies, China, Pakistan, India, … that require energy from fossil fuels, cannot live without these fuels. The new infrastructure they use and the return to carbon is complex and contaminating. At prices above $100 per barrel, pea ayatollah is economically acceptable; a small percentage from the coast.
enzyme, China can pay in yuan, estimating the dollar as a currency of exchange. Also directly with weapons, moving from international trade to the real thing: oil using drones. This was discovered by the pursuing American intelligence.
The Trump administration initially thought this certain traffic would minimize the economic effect of the war.
But the land will be used to rebuild Iran’s defense and offensive infrastructure. He was a factor in the survival of the Ayatollah regime, and this survival is Trump’s defeat.
For Trump and his team, the fear on the edge of Hormuz thus gave way to a desire for his ascent. If this approach is not useful for his Sun monikers, it must also be used for the Ayatollah’s regime, not for its economic competitors such as China, nor for European deserters.
When the Trump administration stopped short of opening Hormuz to look for a cierre.
With this glass, China must keep the source lit More fossil energy is being sought.
On the other hand, China does not have access to energy of American origin, while Venezuela – the largest potential producer – has fallen under the orbit of the EEUU.
On Communism, I ask you to access Russian and African sources. It can be done at high prices (up to $100 per barrel).
They also have to compete with Europe on the African market. For example, Spain receives Nigerian oil and gas from Argentina or Egypt.
It is true that Europe can use another source of power: America. A big advantage for the state-owned companies that also control Venezuela. For example: Spain receives American gas and oil and pays for it in dollars!
In conclusion: at this moment, the fire of Hormuz is undermining the power of China, a competitor of the EU and European countries, which, according to Trump’s psychology, abandoned it when necessary.
The fire of Hormuz has been transformed into an economical, silent and effective nuclear weapon in the hands of two rivals: Iran of the Ayatollahs and Trump’s America.
Those interested in unlocking are: a) China, which requires energy; b) Europe, which wants to reduce the international price; yc) to sun aliases to be exported. Ni a los Ayatolás, ni a Trump les interestes.
Russia is also interested, as sanctions have been reduced and it can sell its energy to more expensive China.
With this panorama, Hormuz is secondary. For Israel, Trump’s partner, it is important that Iran does not have nuclear weapons. For this reason, negotiations were settled at this point and not by fire, or not, Ormuz.
** JR Pin Arboledas is an IESE professor.
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