The chemical sector is expected to grow just 2.1% globally in 2025-26, with European production practically stagnant — 0.2% this year and 0.4% in 2026 — according to a study by Crédito y Caución.
The report points to energy prices and changes in trade policies as the main brakes: “gas prices are expected to remain above pre-crisis levels indefinitely”, which reduces the competitiveness of European producers vis-à-vis the US and China.
Furthermore, new US tariffs could redirect Chinese exports to Europe, while the expansion of Chinese production capacity threatens to create global oversupply, putting pressure on prices and margins.
The study also highlights the impact of regulatory sustainability requirements, which require significant investments in decarbonization and environmental efficiency, and the sector’s exposure to industries affected by trade barriers, such as automobiles — with visible consequences in subsectors such as paints and varnishes.
Crédito y Caución anticipates that Asia-Pacific will continue to lead the sector’s growth, followed by the USA, benefiting from shale gas at competitive costs, leaving Europe in a more vulnerable position due to its dependence on fossil raw materials and international trade tensions.